"Those that were laid-off because of the outbreak may have taken other positions and not be able to return to their previous jobs. That will require significant effort in training and incentives to bring front-line staff back and up to full operational speed."
“那些由于疫情而丢掉工作的人可能找到了新的工作而无法回到原来的岗位。这就需要下很大力气来培训和激励一线员工，让他们达到正常工作水平。”
Vol.1 Issue 8
March 12, 2020
Subject of the Day | 聊点什么
# Quick Thoughts About COVID-19 Outbreak & Tourism
# 关于新冠肺炎疫情和旅游我怎么看
Meet our Ace | 来者何人
John Koldowski
Special Advisor to the CEO of PATA
Former Deputy CEO of PATA
张科德
亚太旅游协会首席执行官特别顾问
前亚太旅游协会副首席执行官
What the Ace says... | 他怎么说
Q: Is your business / organization affected by the recent outbreak of coronavirus? To what extent?
问：您的业务/机构是否受到新冠肺炎疫情影响?程度如何?
A: Every business associated with the movement of people, be they tourism-related or simply students returning to campus is being affected. Indirect effects are significant as well. Many businesses in the tourism sector are small and medium-sized enterprises and more than a few of these will not have the resources to survive this outbreak unless they move to alternate forms of servicing what currently remains of the tourism sector or leave the sector entirely.
答：每一个和人们的迁移有关的业务，不论是旅游相关行业或者仅仅是学生返校，都受到了影响。间接影响同样可观。旅游业里中小企业居多，其中很多无力扛过疫情，除非他们继续在旅游领域深挖其它商业机会，否则只能离开这个行业。
Q: According to your optimistic estimate, how long will it take for tourism to fully recover from the negative impact of the outbreak?
问：根据您的乐观估计，旅游业从疫情的负面影响中完全恢复需要多长时间?
A: At the most optimistic it could be several months after the outbreak has been contained and the health authorities indicate that the immediate threat is over. That has been our experience with previous outbreaks especially that of SARS. A lingering issue however could well be the ‘perception’ of places that are (or were) unsafe, so a return to any sort of normality could be much longer for Wuhan. The recovery strategies will be critical.
答：基于我们过去类似经验，特别是从SARS当中得出的经验，从疫情得到控制不再蔓延以及卫生主管部门宣布紧急威胁结束之后最乐观的估计需要几个月。然而一个遗留问题是人们会 “感觉”有些地方还是不太安全。所以对于武汉来说全方位恢复需要的时间更长，而且恢复战略至关重要。
Q: Can you think of a problem or weakness in our industry that has been exposed because of the outbreak? (Please focus on only one)
问：您认为此次疫情暴露出旅游业的一个什么问题或薄弱点?
A: One major issue will be in getting people back into business organisations. Those that were laid-off because of the outbreak may have taken other positions and not be able to return to their previous jobs. That will require significant effort in training and incentives to bring front-line staff back and up to full operational speed.
答：一个重大问题是企业员工返岗问题。那些由于疫情而丢掉工作的人可能找到了新的工作而无法回到原来的岗位。这就需要下很大力气来培训和激励一线员工，让他们达到正常工作水平。
Q: What do you think is a key point that our industry must pay attention to when it recovers from the crisis? (Please pick only one)
问：您认为疫情后行业恢复应该关注的一个突出问题是什么?
A: Prepare for the next crisis, because there will be one. With this virus, there is a distinct possibility that it (or similar ones) may remain with us for some time, erupting into possible global pandemics without any real notice or warning. Rapid response to any real (or perceived) threat is essential.
答：时刻准备应对下一次危机，因为危机总会出现。这次的病毒很可能还会存在一段时间，将来出现的类似病毒也是如此，而且在事先没有任何征兆的情况下爆发成为全球大流行病。因此面对明确的或者疑似的威胁迅速响应必不可少。
Q: What change (positive or negative) do you think the outbreak may eventually bring to the tourism industry in the future? (Please pick only one)
问：您认为疫情可能为旅游业未来带来的一点变化(积极或消极)是什么?
A: It will necessitate the development of real, actionable crisis responses rather than just a static manual of actions. Technology could play a significant role in this regard; already robots have been deployed for various functions such as food delivery etc.
答：本次疫情会催生真正可实操的危机应对措施，而不仅仅是纸上谈兵。其中技术起到至关重要的作用，比如机器人已经用在配送食物等场景中。
Q: Please share with us a story of your business in dealing with the crisis that others may draw experience from. (Please focus on one aspect)
问：您的行业在此次危机应对中取得的一点经验是什么?
A: The first rule is to stay out of the way of those trying to contain this (or any other) crisis. Let those dealing with it do their job without any interference from us. Once they have completed their tasks, we can then set about to rebuild the sector. We saw what happened following the SARS episode and then after the tsunami of 2004. In both cases, the tourism sector responded with a surge as pent-up demand became actual travel, before returning to more or less normal growth rates. We cannot afford however, to be complacent, but we must have actionable plans and ideally resources to recover efficiently and effectively.
答：首要的规则是不要干扰那些处理危机专业人员的工作。让专业的人做专业的事。当他们完成了他们的工作，我们即可着手重建旅游业。在2003年SARS和2004年海啸之后所发生的事情我们都看到了，在基本恢复到正常的增长率之前，由于需求被压抑，两次危机之后旅游业发生了爆发式恢复。然而我们绝不能因此而沾沾自喜，我们必须有可行动的方案和可适用的资源以达成高效恢复。
About John M. Koldowski | 关于张科德
John Koldowski is currently a Professor and Foreign Expert within the School of Tourism at Leshan Normal University, Sichuan Province, China. He continues in his role as a researcher and educator – the latter to pass on his knowledge and experience in order to prepare the next generation of tourism specialists to enter the workforce with a deep and practical understanding of the dynamics and systems of today’s travel sector.
Prior to that appointment, John was with the College of Innovation at Thailand’s Thammasat University, and a founding member of the Tourism Action Group (TAG) at the same institution. He was also part of the Secretariat for the PATA Thailand Chapter for a number of years, while living and working in Thailand.Before entering academia, Mr. Koldowski was Deputy CEO of PATA where over a fifteen-year span he came to be regarded as one of the travel and tourism sector’s leading analysts. He still maintains his relationship with PATA through his appointment as a special advisor to the CEO.
John specialises in the capture, analysis and interpretation of information concerning shifts, movements and/or trends in the travel and tourism industry, particularly those affecting the Asia Pacific region. This includes monitoring statistics on travel movements, tracking policy and legal developments, identifying changes in consumer preferences and destination developments with respect to branding and positioning.
Mr. Koldowski has a number of other research interests also, including the responsible and sustainable development of mountain and mountain area tourism, rural tourism development and the development of metrics for better measurement of the impact of tourism in fragile areas and on the intangible assets of tourism.
John has extensive experience from across a wide variety of fields including the pharmaceutical, transportation and telecommunications industries as well as travel and tourism - the latter beginning with assignments with Tourism Tasmania and the Northern Territory Tourist Commission (now Tourism NT) before moving to Singapore and then to Thailand, with PATA.
Mr. Koldowski is a graduate of the Flinders University of South Australia, as well as the University of Central Queensland.
Email-1: jktourism@hotmail.com
Email-2: johnk@patachina.org
张科德目前在乐山师范学院旅游学院任教授与外聘专家。他是一名资深研究员，同时也是一位传授其广泛知识和经验的教育家，他让下一代的旅游专家们，能够深入且实际地了解当今旅游业的动态和体系，从而为他们进入职场做好准备。
在来到乐山之前，张科德在泰国国立法政大学创新学院工作，也是该学院旅游行动小组(TAG)的创始成员之一。他曾在泰国工作和生活多年，并在PATA泰国分会秘书处长期任职。
在张科德开始其学术生涯之前，曾担任PATA的副首席执行官，并在超过15年的时间里，被视为旅游业内的领军分析师之一。目前他仍然任PATA首席执行官战略顾问一职。
张科德专门收集、分析并解读有关旅行和旅游业的变化趋势与行业动向的信息，特别是影响亚太地区的信息。包括监测旅游活动的统计数据、追踪政策和法律发展、判定消费者偏好的变化以及与品牌、定位相关的目的地发展。
张科德研究方向较为广泛，包括山地和山区旅游业的负责任和可持续发展、乡村旅游发展，以及为了更好地观测旅游业对脆弱地区和业内无形资产的影响而制定的测量方法。
张科德在医药、运输、电信以及旅行和旅游业等多个领域都有丰富的从业经验。其在旅游业的职业生涯始于塔斯马尼亚旅游局与北领地旅游委员会。在新加坡工作了一段时间后，他移居泰国并在PATA就职。
张科德毕业于南澳福林德斯大学和中央昆士兰大学。
电子邮箱-1: jktourism@hotmail.com
电子邮箱-2: johnk@patachina.org
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